Political and social analysts argue that Cambodia’s entrenched family-based power structure within the ruling Cambodian People’s Party is creating significant obstacles to the independence of Prime Minister Hun Manet, raising concerns about future political stability if Hun Sen is no longer able to act as the central power broker.

A geopolitical analyst focused on the Asia Pacific region, Seng Vanly, wrote on Facebook that when Hun Sen can no longer serve as the key pillar holding the system together, both Hun Manet and the country could face a range of high-risk scenarios in the years ahead.

Seng Vanly warned that one possible outcome is internal fragmentation, noting that Hun Sen remains the only figure widely feared and respected by senior officials and influential political families. Without him, rival networks would have been able to compete for power.

He also pointed to what he described as the limited authority of Hun Manet as prime minister. The current cabinet, he said, reflects a network-based distribution of power dominated by the children and relatives of senior officials, each backed by their own family patronage. This, he argued, could lead to policy paralysis or selective compliance with directives, weakening law enforcement and national policymaking.

Another risk highlighted was an unprepared political transition. Seng Vanly said state institutions such as the courts and parliament have been used primarily to serve those in power, leaving them unable to function as stabilising safeguards in times of leadership crisis.

To avoid these dangers, he argued that Cambodia must shift from personalised rule to governance based on laws and institutions. This would include strengthening the independence of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches, ensuring transparent administrative procedures, and allowing greater public participation.

Seng Vanly stressed that peace dependent on a single individual is inherently fragile. He said lasting stability can only come from trust in state institutions and respect for the rule of law, which he described as essential for Hun Manet and Cambodia to overcome current political vulnerabilities.

Observers also note that more than two years into his term, Hun Manet has yet to exercise full authority as prime minister independently, with major decisions still seen as coming from Hun Sen, his father.

Hun Sen, however, said on August 23, 2025, that Hun Manet’s two years in office had been sufficient for him to gain a solid understanding of national leadership and governance across all sectors of government at both national and subnational levels.

Despite this, Soeng Senkaruna, head of the Khmer Democracy Organization, said recent assessments of Hun Manet’s tenure suggest his leadership remains largely directed by Hun Sen rather than driven by his own authority and decision-making.

A political science expert has warned that newly compiled international records documenting the killing of Cambodian refugees by Thai soldiers at Phnom Khmoch more than four decades ago represent clear evidence of a serious crime, even though the events occurred 47 years ago.

In Sophal, a political science scholar, wrote on social media that between 40,000 and 50,000 Cambodian refugees were forcibly pushed back into Cambodia by Thai soldiers between June 8 and June 13, 1979.

He said many refugees were driven forward at gunpoint, forced to walk through minefields, and killed by landmines deep in the forest. Others, he added, were shot dead by Thai troops when they attempted to turn back, with the death toll running into the thousands.

According to a letter from the International Committee of the Red Cross dated June 29, 1979, and sent to Geneva, more than 40,000 Cambodian refugees were forcibly expelled by Thai soldiers, made to cross minefields, and subjected to lethal gunfire.

In Sophal also cited British journalist William Shawcross, who reported that around 50,000 Cambodian refugees were driven out at gunpoint, pushed from cliffs, and forced to walk back into Cambodia through minefields, while being denied food and water.

He added that a letter published by former United States ambassador Morton Abramowitz stated that only about 1,000 refugees survived the killings by Thai forces. Many of those survivors, the letter said, were seriously ill after days without food or water.

Records from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, written by Yvette Pierpaoli, who was directly involved in rescue efforts, put the number of survivors at just over 900 people.

Vietnamese military records from the same period state that troops rescued between 2,000 and 3,000 Cambodian refugees trapped in minefields.

In Sophal said Thai soldiers repeatedly sent Cambodian refugees to their deaths at Phnom Khmoch from April 1979 onwards. He estimated that nearly 100,000 refugees were killed there in total, while more than 4,000 people survived after being pushed back into Cambodia.

He argued that the brutality was driven by revenge following Thailand’s loss of the Preah Vihear temple case to Cambodia in 1962. According to his account, after killing more than 50,000 refugees in the area, Thai soldiers reportedly described the violence as revenge for what they saw as a national humiliation.

The claims come after Thai media rejected a Cambodian film that depicts the killing of refugees at Phnom Khmoch more than 40 years ago.

On January 18, 2026, the Thai newspaper Khaosod reported that Thailand had expressed concern over how the country was portrayed in the Cambodian film, which refers to Phnom Khmoch as a second killing field. The paper said the film was a work of fiction and should not be used to distort history or incite hatred against Thailand.

However, the same newspaper published an article on September 14, 2025, examining the killing of Cambodian refugees in the 1980s by Thai forces under the headline “How dark is the dark side of Thailand-Cambodia relations”.

That report said revisiting abuses committed by Thai troops in the Dangrek mountain range and at Phnom Khmoch after the fall of the Pol Pot regime was deeply shameful for the Thai state, noting that many younger Thais remain unaware of those events.

The article stated that more than 40,000 Cambodian civilians were transported to the border by Thai troops, shot at, and forced to cross back into Cambodia through minefields. It said refugees were killed by gunfire, landmines, and starvation.

Cambodia’s Foreign Ministry says the arrest of Chinese national Vincent Chen Zhi reflects the country’s determination to crack down on cross-border crime, particularly online scam operations.

The ministry’s position was reported by the pro-government outlet Fresh News, quoting Foreign Minister and Minister for International Cooperation Prak Sokhonn in an interview with Reuters on January 14, 2026.

Prak Sokhonn said Cambodia continues to work closely with partner countries to combat transnational crime. He added that cooperation on tackling online fraud is ongoing with several nations, including the United States, China, South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand.

According to the foreign minister, the arrest of Vincent Chen Zhi was the result of a lengthy investigation into online scam activities carried out by Cambodian authorities. He acknowledged that while Chen Zhi held Cambodian nationality, it was not legally obtained at the time of the investigation. As a Chinese citizen, Chen Zhi was therefore extradited to China.

Cambodian authorities detained Chen Zhi on January 6, 2026, before transferring him to the People’s Republic of China. His royal title of oknha was revoked by order of the Cambodian king in December 2025.

However, regional geopolitical observer Seng Vanly criticised the government’s explanation, writing on social media that the comments by Prak Sokhonn lacked transparency. He said the case highlighted weaknesses in Cambodia’s system of checks and balances, leaving leaders under little pressure to be accountable for their actions and statements.

Rights advocates have also raised concerns. The Cambodia Advocacy Team, known as Cambodia Advocacy Team, said on January 13 that transferring Chen Zhi to China without a court hearing constituted a serious violation of Cambodia’s justice system. The group argued that the move denied justice to victims linked to the alleged scam operations.

The organisation claimed the extradition was intended to eliminate evidence of crimes allegedly committed by Chen Zhi in Cambodia, including money laundering, online fraud, and the abuse of victims. It also alleged that the transfer prevented further scrutiny of financial flows and scam locations previously operating inside the country.

In a separate development, the United States Department of Justice said in a statement on October 14, 2025, that more than 100 companies, 118 in total, had been accused of links to online fraud connected to Chen Zhi.

US federal prosecutor Joseph Nocella Jr. said in a court filing in October 2025 that Chen Zhi’s Prince Group had allegedly run scam operations across Cambodia since 2015. The filing accused the company of operating fraudulent cryptocurrency investment schemes and other scams under the guise of a Cambodian conglomerate.

According to prosecutors, the group was involved in real estate development, financial services, and consumer services, causing losses amounting to billions of dollars and targeting victims in the United States and around the world.

Social observers say a political culture that hides behind the language of democracy is not strengthening democratic practice, but instead is actively eroding it in Cambodia.

Sek Socheat, a development and research adviser, wrote on social media that leaders who rely on populist democratic rhetoric are exposing their inability to lead within a genuine democratic culture. He argued that politicians who claim democracy as a core value while failing to practise internal party democracy lack the capacity to govern a country as a true democracy.

According to Sek Socheat, building real democracy in society must begin inside political parties themselves. He said politicians who deceive voters in pursuit of power are, in effect, corrupt actors operating under a democratic image.

These comments come as Cambodia remains without what critics describe as genuine democracy, despite more than four decades under the leadership of the Cambodian People’s Party.

Article 1 of Cambodia’s constitution states that the country is a constitutional monarchy that adheres to a liberal, multi-party democratic system.

In the past, the ruling party leader Hun Sen has urged the Interior Ministry to safeguard peace, promote liberal multi-party democracy, protect citizens’ rights and freedoms, and strengthen the rule of law in line with the constitution.

More recently, Prime Minister Hun Manet said the Cambodian People’s Party aims to promote what he described as centrist democratic values, working alongside countries and political parties that support multilateralism and diversity in political governance.

Despite these statements, democracy in Cambodia, since the Paris Peace Agreements more than 30 years ago, is widely seen by observers as remaining fragile and in steady decline. This assessment applies both to government practice and to internal operations within political parties, even as party leaders continue to claim they are advancing democracy.

Monitoring groups say that under Hun Sen’s leadership, Cambodia has been marked by intimidation that has left many citizens living in fear. They accuse the one-party government of repeatedly violating the constitution, breaching international agreements, undermining democratic principles, and committing ongoing human rights abuses.

Political analyst Lao Mong Hai has said that although Cambodian politicians may hold differing views, they should share a single objective: serving the national interest and the people. To maintain that goal, he argued, politicians across the spectrum cannot depart from democratic principles.

In a related development, the rights group LICADHO reported that over the past two years, more than 100 people have been arrested and more than 60 imprisoned for expressing opinions on social issues. Those targeted include social activists, land rights advocates, human rights defenders, political activists, and politicians, a trend observers say has contributed to a serious decline in democracy in Cambodia.

Lawyers in Cambodia say the international community continues to focus closely on the case of opposition leader Kem Sokha, viewing it as central to prospects for a political settlement and national reconciliation in the country.

Kem Sokha, the former leader of the dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party, remains under house detention. According to legal observers, foreign governments want to see progress toward reconciliation between Cambodians, arguing that political compromise is essential for the country’s long-term stability and for the interests of its citizens.

Meng Sopheary, a member of the defence team representing opposition figures, wrote on social media that Cambodia is facing a difficult national moment, including external security pressures. She said many Cambodians are calling on political leaders to reconcile, restore unity, and strengthen national solidarity.

She added that international actors, including the European Union, Canada, Australia, and the United States, continue to closely monitor Kem Sokha’s situation. In her view, these countries want to see reconciliation between Cambodians for the benefit of the nation, even as some individuals work to prevent political unity.

Her comments come as political tensions in Cambodia remain high, despite what observers describe as serious national challenges, including pressure from a neighbouring country.

On January 13, Prime Minister Hun Manet wrote on Facebook that he had seen strong national unity and determination among Cambodians across the country. He said people were committed to building a resilient nation during a difficult period marked by what he described as threats to Cambodia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Hun Manet said the current situation requires collective unity and shared national commitment to strengthen Cambodia’s capacity in all sectors and to address social weaknesses that could undermine the country.

However, a different view was raised by Men Nat, chair of the Cambodia Watchdog Council, speaking on the Idea Talk programme of The Cambodia Daily in December. He said that when fighting broke out between Cambodia and Thailand, ordinary Cambodians were already united, but the key question was whether the government was able or willing to harness that unity.

Men Nat argued that genuine national reconciliation must begin with the ruling party. He said unity cannot be achieved through rhetoric alone, pointing to past pledges of reconciliation that were followed by arrests and pressure on critics and opposition figures.

He said meaningful reconciliation would require the release of all prisoners of conscience, including social activists and politicians. He singled out Kem Sokha, whom he described as being held unjustly.

Political analysts say the continued detention of critics and the suppression of dissent risk deepening national divisions and weakening Cambodia at a time when unity is widely seen as crucial.

An opposition political party in Cambodia is calling on the government to urgently strengthen the country’s defence sector, amid reports that Sweden continues to sell weapons, including fighter jets, to Thailand.

The president of the New Generation Party says Cambodia must move quickly to develop a more robust national defence capability, arguing that arms-producing countries such as Sweden continue to supply weapons to Thailand that, he claims, have been used in military actions against Cambodia.

He says it is standard practice for countries to invest heavily in modern military equipment to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity. Arms manufacturers, he adds, do not produce weapons merely for display but for sale, based on diplomatic relations, alliances, or commercial agreements, often tied to specific conditions.

Sweden, which manufactures the Gripen JAS 39 light fighter jet through the defence company Saab, is described as operating no differently from other major arms producers, including companies in China, India, the United States, Russia, and several European countries. Cambodia, for its part, has also purchased weapons from China for similar defensive purposes.

Speaking to The Cambodia Daily, the New Generation Party leader argues that after what he describes as two recent wars in which Thailand invaded Cambodia, the Cambodian government should clearly understand what reforms are needed to ensure long-term national defence. He highlights the military sector and corruption as key areas requiring urgent attention.

He says that alongside urging Phnom Penh to strengthen its armed forces, his party has submitted petitions to the governments of Sweden and the United States, calling for a halt to further arms supplies to Thailand until an independent international investigation is conducted into the conflict.

The party is also urging the Cambodian government to take a long-term view of the country’s future, including carefully assessing which major powers should be considered strategic allies. It says the experience of a 21-day war with Thailand should be examined to determine which countries genuinely supported Cambodia.

These statements follow a formal petition by the New Generation Party asking Sweden to stop supplying weapons to Thailand, to prevent their future use against Cambodia.

On January 9, 2026, the party submitted petitions to the United States Congress and the Swedish Parliament, calling for an immediate suspension of arms transfers to Thailand and for the technical systems of Thai-operated Gripen fighter jets to be disabled.

The petition sets out four conditions, including suspending the technical capabilities of the Gripen aircraft used by the Thai military, citing what it describes as a severe military imbalance. It argues that Thailand deployed advanced fighter jets against Cambodia, which has no comparable combat aircraft. The petition does not address questions surrounding Cambodia’s existing air assets, including older MiG aircraft and helicopter gunships, which commentators have questioned why they were not deployed and where they are currently based.

The party also calls for a halt to weapons sales, maintenance services, technical support, and further transfers of fighter jets or drones to Thailand, arguing that Sweden should not be seen as complicit in alleged violations of international law by supplying arms to an aggressor.

A Cambodian political analyst has previously commented on social media that arms-producing nations generally sell weapons for national defence purposes, not for use in invading other countries.

The New Generation Party is urging the United States and Sweden to investigate the conflict based on historical treaties, including the 1904 and 1907 border agreements, under international law.

According to the party, the two rounds of Cambodia–Thailand fighting lasted a total of 26 days, during which Thailand used a wide range of combat aircraft, including Swedish-made Gripen jets, to carry out air strikes deep inside Cambodian territory.

Data cited from the Small Arms Survey indicates that Thailand’s air force includes T-50TH aircraft purchased from South Korea, F-16 fighters from the United States, Gripen jets from Sweden, Northrop F-5 Tiger II aircraft, and Alpha Jet A light attack aircraft.

On December 24, 2025, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Cambodia said Thai aircraft had dropped bombs as far as 98 kilometres inside Cambodia, near the Phnom Sampov tourist area in Battambang province.

Thai public broadcaster Thai PBS reported that on the same day, Thailand carried out air strikes on what it described as hidden weapons depots in remote border areas of Battambang province, including a site located within a casino complex in Thmor Da, Pursat province.

A Cambodian advocacy group has condemned the transfer of former tycoon Chen Zhi to China without a court hearing in Cambodia, saying the move represents a serious violation of the country’s justice system and denies justice to victims linked to alleged fraud cases.

The group, known as the Cambodia Advocacy Team, said in an analysis released on Wednesday that sending Chen Zhi to China without judicial proceedings in Cambodia amounted to the deliberate erasure of evidence connected to crimes he is alleged to have committed in the country.

It said those allegations include money laundering, online fraud, and abuse of victims, adding that the failure to prosecute the case domestically deprived victims of their right to justice.

The advocacy group argued that numerous crimes previously linked to Chen Zhi, including human trafficking, fraud, and money laundering, had caused severe reputational damage to Cambodia and to the Khmer people as a whole. It said a full investigation and trial by the Cambodian courts would have been a crucial step in restoring the country’s international standing.

According to the group, transferring a suspect abroad while bypassing domestic legal procedures also risks concealing evidence related to financial flows and the locations of scam operations allegedly run in Cambodia.

It added that although Cambodia has laws to combat money laundering, human trafficking, and online fraud, those laws were not applied in this case. The group said this highlighted what it described as systemic impunity, now increasingly visible to the international community.

The comments followed the transfer of Chen Zhi to China earlier this month. On January 7, 2026, the Ministry of Interior said Cambodian authorities had arrested three Chinese nationals at the request of Chinese officials. They were identified as Chen Zhi, Xu Ji Liang, and Shao Ji Hui, and were sent back to China under bilateral law enforcement cooperation.

Earlier, in 2024, a Chinese investigation report identified Chen Zhi as the head of the Prince Group, a conglomerate founded in 2015 with business interests in real estate, shopping centres, banking, and other sectors across Cambodia. The report said the group generated billions of dollars in annual revenue.

Beyond his role as an investor, Chen Zhi had also been appointed as a personal adviser to Senate President Hun Sen and Prime Minister Hun Manet.

In October 2025, the United States House of Representatives introduced draft legislation known as H.R. 5490, proposing sanctions on Cambodia and on senior officials, business figures, and companies accused of links to corruption and transnational crime. Chen Zhi was among those named in the draft.

Separately, a report published on May 25, 2025, by the US-based Humanity Research Consultancy said Cambodia had become a global hub for scam operations controlled by Chinese criminal networks operating across the country.

Political observers in Cambodia have criticised Prime Minister Hun Manet for no longer describing recent fighting with Thailand as an invasion, despite allegations that Thai forces bombed deep into Cambodian territory and continue to occupy areas claimed by Cambodia.

The head of the Cambodia Watchdog Council, Man Nat, wrote on social media that he agreed with public calls for the government to continue using the phrase “Thai invasion of Cambodia”. He said Thai troops remain stationed in several locations inside Cambodian territory and have carried out air strikes deep inside the country, actions he said violated international law during two recent rounds of fighting.

Man Nat argued that even if the Cambodian government wished to avoid the term invasion out of concern that it could complicate negotiations with Thailand, it should not ignore key details. He said Phnom Penh must collect evidence and compile reports on what he described as illegal military actions by Thailand, including the occupation of Cambodian territory and cross-border attacks.

He said all evidence should be submitted to international partners and attached to legal complaints filed with the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.

Man Nat also urged the government to apply multiple mechanisms in response to the conflict, including high-level diplomatic pressure and legal action against the Thai government and senior military commanders. He added that Cambodia should be prepared to exercise its right to self-defence at any time if Thailand continues to use force.

His comments followed a special address by Hun Manet after fighting between Cambodia and Thailand was temporarily halted.

On January 10, 2026, Hun Manet stated the twenty-one-day conflict, focusing on the reconstruction of civilian infrastructure and the return of displaced civilians. He outlined the impact of the fighting on livelihoods, public services, and civilian facilities, and plans for recovery.

However, critics noted that the prime minister described the damage as the result of a border dispute, without referring to it as an invasion by Thailand.

By contrast, on January 7, 2026, Hun Sen said Thailand had launched a violent war violating Cambodia’s territorial integrity along the border, under the pretext of protecting Thai security and sovereignty.

The United States president, Donald Trump, said on December 22, 2025, that Thailand had invaded Cambodia, arguing that Bangkok had initiated the border conflict.

Thailand has rejected those claims. The Thai newspaper Khaosod quoted acting prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul earlier this month as saying Thai military actions were solely to defend national territory.

On January 2, 2026, Cambodia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation said Thai forces were illegally occupying fourteen locations across four Cambodian provinces. It said these included three sites in Banteay Meanchey, two in Pursat, three in Preah Vihear, and six in Oddar Meanchey.

The ministry added that during large-scale military operations from December 7 to December 27, 2025, Thai forces carried out what it described as systematic and premeditated attacks on multiple locations inside Cambodia, to seize and hold territory in violation of international law.

The Phnom Penh court has decided to postpone the hearing in the treason case against opposition leader Kem Sokha, pushing proceedings back to early next year.

In a notice dated December 16 and made public on Wednesday, the Phnom Penh Court of Appeal said the criminal hearing, which had been scheduled for December 18, 2025, would be delayed until early 2026. No new date was specified.

The case, which centres on allegations of collusion with a foreign state, has been repeatedly postponed at both the trial court and appeal court levels.

On November 27, the Court of Appeal issued a summons ordering Kem Sokha, the former leader of the Cambodia National Rescue Party, to appear in court on December 18 in connection with the collusion charge. The summons stated that the alleged offence of treason was committed in Cambodia and elsewhere between 1993 and September 3, 2017, an offence punishable under Article 443 of the Criminal Code.

Kem Sokha’s defence lawyer, Pheng Heng, wrote on Facebook that on December 15, he had coincidentally met judges and court clerks and asked about the upcoming hearing. He said they told him the trial would not be postponed.

However, Pheng Heng said that on the morning of December 17, he received an official notice announcing a delay, without any explanation. He added that he had not been informed in advance and suggested that the court officials he had spoken to earlier may also have been unaware of the decision.

Suon Rida, a senior official of the Grassroots Democracy Party and a former lawmaker from the Cambodia National Rescue Party, said a single delay might not be an issue. But he questioned the credibility of Cambodia’s justice system, given the repeated postponements, asking where justice stood for Kem Sokha and for citizens affected by the case.

On March 3, 2023, Kem Sokha was sentenced to 27 years in prison after being convicted of collusion with foreign powers. The court accused him of conspiring with the United States to overthrow the Cambodian government and imposed a lifetime ban on his civil and political rights.

Kem Sokha reappeared in public on July 31, 2025, for the first time since his conviction, attending a ceremony to honour soldiers killed in fighting along the Cambodia-Thailand border. His appearance followed diplomatic intervention by United States President Donald Trump, which led to a ceasefire in late July.

Cambodian courts have alleged that the United States was the mastermind behind the case, naming organisations including USAID, the National Democratic Institute, and the International Republican Institute as being involved.

In November 2019, during Donald Trump’s first term as president, he wrote to Hun Sen, then Cambodia’s prime minister, stating that the United States had no involvement in any plan to overthrow the Cambodian government with Kem Sokha.