Observers of regional affairs are warning that Thailand could suffer significant and long-term economic setbacks if it halts trade with Cambodia, while Cambodia’s impact would likely be short-term and manageable.
Writing on his official Facebook page, Southeast Asian geopolitical analyst Seng Vannly explained that Cambodia is primarily a demand-driven economy, relying on imports with the financial means to purchase goods. Thailand, by contrast, functions as a major supplier and exporter.
According to Seng Vannly, if Thailand were to cut off its exports to Cambodia, Phnom Penh could still procure goods from alternative markets. “Cambodia has the money to buy what it needs,” he wrote. The real damage, he added, would fall on Thailand itself.
He pointed out that Thai manufacturers would lose revenue, jobs, and potentially be forced to shut down operations entirely. More critically, losing the Cambodian market could open the door for regional competitors like Vietnam and China to gain a stronger foothold.
Cambodian consumers who rely on Thai products may experience short-term difficulties, including price increases due to limited domestic alternatives. However, Seng Vannly noted that Cambodia retains the flexibility to source from new suppliers, leveraging its purchasing power.
He emphasized that any negative impact on Cambodia would likely be temporary. If the government can manage domestic pricing, promote local production, and diversify its import sources quickly, the situation can be stabilized over time.
This comes amid rising tensions between the two countries. On June 22, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet issued a directive halting all imports of petroleum and gas from Thailand, effective from midnight Sunday.
Hun Manet reassured the public that fuel distributors in Cambodia have sufficient capacity to import from other sources to meet domestic demand, not only for one month, but indefinitely if needed.
The directive followed calls from former Prime Minister Hun Sen, now head of the ruling party, urging the government to shift away from Thai imports. His remarks came in response to Thai politicians who had threatened to stop selling goods to Cambodia amid an ongoing border dispute.
Speaking on June 20, Hun Sen advised the Cambodian government to reduce its reliance on Thai imports, including petroleum, to prevent future leverage by Thailand in political or economic matters.
The move marks a sharp turn in bilateral trade relations and reflects growing concerns in Phnom Penh about strategic vulnerabilities linked to economic dependence on its western neighbor.
