Perhaps proving the axiom that the only poll that counts is the one on election day, a French-based research organization shows a wide disparity between the results of the July 26 election, and a survey taken three days later.
The French Institute of Statistics, Opinion Polls and Research, also known as Ifrassorc, which conducted fortnightly surveys in the months leading up to the election, showed a 20-percent gap between those who said they voted for the CPP and the preliminary results released by the National Election Committee and the independent election watchdog Comfrel.
Eleven percent of respondents surveyed July 16 in Phnom Penh and four outlying provinces said they would vote for the CPP, and 41 percent actually did, the survey said.
A poll taken in markets three days after the elections found 20 percent of the respondents saying they voted for the unofficial winner, the CPP.
Twelve percent said July 16 they would vote for Funcinpec, 32 percent actually did, and 39 percent said they did. The Sam Rainsy Party had 12 percent in the pre-election poll, 14 percent on election day and 27 percent July 29.
The percentages, taken from 3,036 respondents—1,747 in Phnom Penh and 1,289 in Takeo, Kandal, Kompong Cham and Kompong Chhnang provinces, are adjusted for the disparity in the capital and provincial populations.
Changes could be explained by the 61 percent of respondents who gave “no opinion” in the pre-election survey. In the post-poll survey, only 11 percent declined to answer.
The survey also failed to find the supporters of smaller parties, with only 2.2 percent saying they would vote for parties other than the CPP, Funcinpec and Sam Rainy, as opposed to the 12 percent who actually did, and the 3 percent found July 29.
The one thing the survey did confirm was the high voter turn-out. Only 3 percent of the respondents said they did not vote.
